What if your gut is lying to you?
We’ve been told to “trust our instincts” so often it feels like a mantra. But instincts are shortcuts—evolution’s way of helping us survive, not thrive. A gut feeling might keep you from petting a growling dog. It won’t tell you how to build a better app, lead a team, or write a book.
Success isn’t about ignoring intuition. It’s about refusing to let intuition drive alone.
The Myth of the Lone Genius
Steve Jobs didn’t invent the iPhone because he trusted his gut. He listened to engineers, studied user behavior, and iterated relentlessly. The first iPhone prototype was a disaster. The second wasn’t much better.
Gut feelings are seductive. They whisper, “You’re special. You know better.” But genius is rarely solitary. It’s a collaboration between intuition and evidence.
When you rely only on your gut, you’re not being bold—you’re being blind.
The Danger of “This Feels Right”
A CEO once told me, “I knew our new product would work. It just felt right.” Six months later, it tanked. Customers were confused. Competitors laughed.
Here’s the problem: Your gut doesn’t know what it doesn’t know.
- It doesn’t know market trends.
- It doesn’t know your customer’s hidden frustrations.
- It doesn’t know that your “brilliant idea” was tried (and failed) in 2003.
Gut decisions are guesses dressed up as wisdom.
The Data You’re Ignoring
A farmer doesn’t plant crops because it “feels like rain.” She checks the weather forecast.
Yet we make business decisions, career pivots, and creative bets based on hunches alone. Why?
Data isn’t cold or impersonal. Data is feedback from reality. When Netflix recommended shows based on viewing habits instead of hunches, engagement soared. When Target analyzed buying patterns to predict pregnancies, sales grew.
Your gut is a compass. Data is the map.
The Stories We Tell Ourselves
Gut reliance thrives on stories. “I got lucky that one time, so my instincts are golden.” “My last boss hated my idea, but I proved him wrong.”
Confirmation bias loves these tales. It magnifies the wins and buries the losses.
A restaurant owner insists her “cozy vibe” is why people come back. But when she surveys customers, they say, “The fries.” Now she knows where to focus.
Your gut remembers the glory. Data remembers the truth.
How to Use Your Gut Without Trusting It
- Treat intuition as a question, not an answer.
Your gut says, “This ad will work.” Ask, “What’s the cheapest way to test that?”
Your gut says, “Hire this person.” Ask, “What three skills does the role actually need?” - Seek the “No.”
Find someone smart who disagrees with you. Listen. If their argument doesn’t sway you, you’ve stress-tested your idea. If it does, you’ve saved time and money. - Run tiny experiments.
Before quitting your job to start a bakery, sell 50 cupcakes at a farmers’ market. Before launching a podcast, record three episodes for friends.
Experiments turn “I think” into “I know.”
The Cost of Certainty
In 2008, Blockbuster’s gut said, “People will always want to browse DVDs in stores.” Netflix’s data said otherwise.
Certainty feels safe. It’s not. Clinging to gut decisions in a changing world is like refusing to check the weather before a hike.
The goal isn’t to eliminate intuition. It’s to balance it with humility.
When Guts Get It Right (And Why It’s a Trap)
Sometimes your gut wins. A designer picks a color that becomes iconic. A writer chooses a title that goes viral.
But here’s the catch: Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Relying on gut wins without examining why they worked is like celebrating a lottery ticket. Luck isn’t a strategy.
The Feedback Loop That Works
A chef doesn’t taste every dish because she distrusts her skills. She does it to learn.
Build your own feedback loop:
- Make a decision (gut or not).
- Measure the outcome.
- Compare it to what you expected.
- Adjust.
Over time, you’ll spot patterns. Maybe your gut is great at hiring but terrible at pricing. Maybe your instincts for headlines are spot-on, but your timing stinks.
Feedback turns intuition into insight.
The Courage to Be Wrong
Trusting data feels vulnerable. It means admitting, “I might not know best.”
But vulnerability is where growth lives. A marketer who admits, “Our email open rates are low—let’s ask subscribers why,” learns faster than one who insists, “People just need better subject lines.”
Data isn’t the enemy of creativity. It’s the foundation.
Try This Today
Pick one decision you’ve been wrestling with. Then:
- Write down what your gut says.
- Find one piece of data that challenges it.
- If your gut says, “My team is unmotivated,” send an anonymous survey.
- If your gut says, “This product is too expensive,” interview three customers.
- Act on the data, not the feeling.
Notice what changes.
The Takeaway
Your gut is a partner, not a prophet.
Success doesn’t come from choosing between intuition and evidence. It comes from letting them talk to each other.
Stop asking, “What do I feel?” Start asking, “What can I learn?”
The right path isn’t about trusting yourself less. It’s about trusting reality more.
What will you question first?